Electric Vehicle Update - Excessive Global Demand, and Will the Grid Break ?
As we come to the close of 2022, the EV world is on firing on all cylinders (silly way to say it - right ?). Locally, we on Salt Spring recently reported a year-over-year growth rate of 40% in passenger EV ownership from 272 in 2020 to 380 in 2021 (about 5% of passenger vehicles). Our ownership number would be much higher, but issues such as global supply chain issues and a much greater post-pandemic sales surge have caused EV wait lists of up to 2 years (some dealers I am in contact with will no longer take wait lists beyond 2 years).
Is this a temporary flash in the pan/pet rock event ? No. An article I read this week discusses the fact that 99% of folks that have chosen to drive EV have stated they will never purchase an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle again. This is a global shift in the way we drive, supported by the new driving experience, reduced cost of ownership, little required maintenance, purchase incentives and government regulations banning the future sales of ICE vehicles at some date in the future (example 2035 in California) Norway is the global leader in EV ownership and in September, 78% of the total market sales were electric.
But what is often asked, how is the electrical grid going to handle it? Well, locally, BC Hydro has actively promoted greater electrical efficiency for decades. Over time, the advent of LED lighting, heat pumps, use of cell phone over desktop communications for internet access, upgraded insulation and energy rated devices has reduced the energy need in each existing home, as more homes are added to the grid. So the overall usage has been pretty much flat. Along comes EV’s needing to be powered by hydro-generated electricity rather than Oil. A new energy-sapping kid on the block. Is it significant ? Somewhat. As an example, I am a moderate use driver - I head onto the roads an average of once per day. I only need to charge my Tesla about every 2 weeks for a few hours. I add about 50 kWh to the car (20% to 80%), at an estimated cost of about $7 (assuming a current Tier 1 to 2 average of 12 cents/kwh). Yes, it is a new load to the grid, but I think not as significant as some folks believe. Still, can we use other methods to balance our usage to allow the existing grid to barely even notice ?
The Smart Folks at Hydro have been surveying other jurisdictions and are currently preparing for a “hours of use” billing program. This is a great idea as every EV I have seen comes with the ability to program charge start/stop times. There are a few plans that could be available. But the bottom line, incentivize greatly reduced electricity charging in the wee hours of the morning (say, 2am - 5am), when there is little demand on the grid and raise the price during peak times (say, the high demand supper time - 4pm to 8pm). In the past in other jurisdictions, this allowed some devices, like dish and clothes washers to run early in the morning, which saves the owner money. But this use was pretty minor. In my own Tesla example, at a $8 cents/kwh late-hours incentive rate, it would now cost about about $4 for the same bi-weekly fill. The GRID is happier and so is my wallet, which is nice during these inflationary times. With an ever-increasing percentage of the BC population owning EV’s, one hopes these programs will become available soon. BC Hydro has indicated that the program is intended to be revenue neutral.
Looking elsewhere, other innovative solutions are emerging. One example is that the French Senate has approved a bill that within 5 years, any parking lot with over 80 spaces must install solar panel coverings for EV charging (and shade). These parking locations are likely to be located along the major thoroughfares. The generated power is estimated to be up to 11 gigawatts (the equivalent of 10 nuclear power stations). That is a lot of what could have been grid power, from renewal sunshine.
Links to support the above topics are at: https://www.ssiev.ca/links.html
I encourage your respectful comments. I can be reached at jstanden@ucalgary.ca
As we come to the close of 2022, the EV world is on firing on all cylinders (silly way to say it - right ?). Locally, we on Salt Spring recently reported a year-over-year growth rate of 40% in passenger EV ownership from 272 in 2020 to 380 in 2021 (about 5% of passenger vehicles). Our ownership number would be much higher, but issues such as global supply chain issues and a much greater post-pandemic sales surge have caused EV wait lists of up to 2 years (some dealers I am in contact with will no longer take wait lists beyond 2 years).
Is this a temporary flash in the pan/pet rock event ? No. An article I read this week discusses the fact that 99% of folks that have chosen to drive EV have stated they will never purchase an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle again. This is a global shift in the way we drive, supported by the new driving experience, reduced cost of ownership, little required maintenance, purchase incentives and government regulations banning the future sales of ICE vehicles at some date in the future (example 2035 in California) Norway is the global leader in EV ownership and in September, 78% of the total market sales were electric.
But what is often asked, how is the electrical grid going to handle it? Well, locally, BC Hydro has actively promoted greater electrical efficiency for decades. Over time, the advent of LED lighting, heat pumps, use of cell phone over desktop communications for internet access, upgraded insulation and energy rated devices has reduced the energy need in each existing home, as more homes are added to the grid. So the overall usage has been pretty much flat. Along comes EV’s needing to be powered by hydro-generated electricity rather than Oil. A new energy-sapping kid on the block. Is it significant ? Somewhat. As an example, I am a moderate use driver - I head onto the roads an average of once per day. I only need to charge my Tesla about every 2 weeks for a few hours. I add about 50 kWh to the car (20% to 80%), at an estimated cost of about $7 (assuming a current Tier 1 to 2 average of 12 cents/kwh). Yes, it is a new load to the grid, but I think not as significant as some folks believe. Still, can we use other methods to balance our usage to allow the existing grid to barely even notice ?
The Smart Folks at Hydro have been surveying other jurisdictions and are currently preparing for a “hours of use” billing program. This is a great idea as every EV I have seen comes with the ability to program charge start/stop times. There are a few plans that could be available. But the bottom line, incentivize greatly reduced electricity charging in the wee hours of the morning (say, 2am - 5am), when there is little demand on the grid and raise the price during peak times (say, the high demand supper time - 4pm to 8pm). In the past in other jurisdictions, this allowed some devices, like dish and clothes washers to run early in the morning, which saves the owner money. But this use was pretty minor. In my own Tesla example, at a $8 cents/kwh late-hours incentive rate, it would now cost about about $4 for the same bi-weekly fill. The GRID is happier and so is my wallet, which is nice during these inflationary times. With an ever-increasing percentage of the BC population owning EV’s, one hopes these programs will become available soon. BC Hydro has indicated that the program is intended to be revenue neutral.
Looking elsewhere, other innovative solutions are emerging. One example is that the French Senate has approved a bill that within 5 years, any parking lot with over 80 spaces must install solar panel coverings for EV charging (and shade). These parking locations are likely to be located along the major thoroughfares. The generated power is estimated to be up to 11 gigawatts (the equivalent of 10 nuclear power stations). That is a lot of what could have been grid power, from renewal sunshine.
Links to support the above topics are at: https://www.ssiev.ca/links.html
I encourage your respectful comments. I can be reached at jstanden@ucalgary.ca